If you’re one of the more than 95% of American drivers who don’t have a diesel-fueled car, headlines of prices soaring well over $6 a gallon and notching record highs might make you relieved that gas prices haven’t climbed that high.
Energy market experts have bad news, though: Even if you never touch a diesel pump, buckle up. You’re more exposed to the soaring cost of diesel than you realize. And recent price spikes will impact your wallet in numerous, sometimes surprising, ways.
As of Friday, the national average price for a gallon of diesel was $6.45, according to AAA. That represents a 5-cent increase from Thursday and a jump of 39 cents over the past week. A year ago today, the average price was $3.71.
Market pros predict more pain to come. “U.S. pump prices will soon surpass $6.50,” Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil, wrote in a note shared with Money on Wednesday. “These are stunning numbers for inflation. Whether it’s a car, a tractor, a vessel or a plane, prices for various fuels are at or near all-time highs.”
Diesel, in particular, has economy-wide ripple effects.
“Almost every consumer product touches a diesel truck at least once, usually several times,” Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, wrote in an email to Money. Goods move from factories or farms through complex distribution channels before reaching consumers.
This means the impact is pervasive across many sectors of the economy, and the global supply chain’s reliance on diesel at every step multiplies the impact of the price shock.
“Diesel cost increases get layered in at multiple points before a product ever reaches a shelf — which is part of why the eventual retail price increase can be larger than the diesel price increase itself,” Thummel explained.
Here’s where experts say you’re most likely to see evidence of this price pressure.
Fresh food
“The grocery store will be the clearest place consumers will soon feel impacts,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in an email to Money.
That’s for a couple of reasons: Not only is diesel the primary fuel for trucks that transport food from where it’s grown to your local supermarket, but it’s also the fuel used to run farm equipment that grows and harvests food.
“The three Ts drive the U.S. economic engine: tractors, trains and trucks, and all need diesel,” DeHaan observed.
On top of that, sulfur, another petroleum derivative, is a key ingredient in fertilizer. Manufacturers have been sounding the alarm that skyrocketing prices and tight supply will make growing food more expensive.
Perishables, which have to be shipped according to tight timelines on refrigerated vehicles, are on the front lines. DeHaan singled out meat, dairy, fresh produce and frozen foods as categories where the impact could be noticeable most quickly.
Online shopping
“One of the places higher diesel prices can show up sooner than later is in shipping and logistics,” a recent J.P. Morgan Wealth Management investor insight brief noted.
The expectation of fast, free shipping could become a thing of the past. “Retailers offering free or low-cost delivery are particularly exposed,” an analysis in trade publication Retail Insight Network warned.
If you prefer to shop online, you could see changes to shipping policies coming soon. “[Retailers] could also review free-delivery thresholds, consolidate shipments or encourage customers to place fewer, larger orders,” the analysis noted.
When diesel prices initially spiked in March, shortly after the beginning of the war in Iran, the U.S. Postal Service announced its first-ever fuel surcharge, an 8% increase for Priority Mail, Ground Advantage and Parcel Select shipping services. Although implemented as a temporary increase that would roll off in January 2027, the agency warned that the charge could be a “bridge to a permanent mechanism to reflect market conditions in prices.”
Last month, the USPS announced a 6% increase on Ground Advantage, Priority Mail USPS Ground Advantage and Parcel Select service charges for the holiday season. These new charges are scheduled to be in place from Oct. 4 until Jan. 17, 2027.
Likewise, shippers using UPS and FedEx also began seeing higher prices when fuel costs jumped in the spring, the Wall Street Journal reported. The two carriers, as well as Amazon, have implemented surcharges ahead of the upcoming holiday season, as per Inc.
Furniture and other bulky goods
The J.P. Morgan publication noted that diesel’s crucial role in freight transport also makes its cost a key driver for “behind-the-scenes expenses like storing, routing and moving inventory from factories to warehouses to store shelves,” especially when it comes to moving large or heavy loads.
DeHaan says heavy items like furniture and appliances could climb in price as the cost to transport them climbs. If the crisis widens to prices for other oil types, then all of the petroleum-derived components in those items — plastic, particleboard and foam, for instance — would rise in price, as well.
He also added that heavy or bulky products — think bottled water, pet food, paper goods and building materials for home renovation projects — all could climb in price as manufacturers and distributors have to pay more to get them to stores.
Motor oil
Transport of nearly half of the feedstock for the U.S. supply of motor oil has been hindered by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, and a large amount of the refining capacity for motor oil feedstock was taken offline in March when a key Qatari refinery was severely damaged. Many of the other refineries that make the feedstock for motor oil also refine diesel. High prices driven by spiking demand incentivize these refiners to switch to diesel production, leaving little capacity left for motor oil.
Early reports of scattered shortages in the spring have grown more widespread, prompting sellers to raise prices on the supply that is available. Recently, warehouse club Costco roughly doubled the price of its Kirkland Signature brand oil — up to nearly $60 for a two-pack of quart bottles — and imposed purchase limits, according to Fox Business News.
Heating oil
Most American homes are heated via other fuels, predominantly natural gas, but for the roughly 5 million homeowners who do have oil heat, staying warm this winter is likely to be a much pricier proposition.
Although fuel oil burned in home furnaces and diesel are different products, the production process for the two petroleum derivatives is the same. A spike in demand for diesel can incentivize refiners to produce that instead. When less heating oil is produced, the resulting drop in supply can drive prices higher.
“The [global] market is competing for a limited supply of diesel. So, at what point do we worry? We worry now,” Dan Pickering, founder of consulting and research firm Pickering Energy Partners, told Fortune magazine. “Prices are quite high, and there’s no easy relief valve.”
