The Nutshell Growth Fund invests in quality stocks from exceptional businesses, but only when their valuations offer an attractive prospective return. Our concentrated portfolio of around 30 global companies is selected for two characteristics that do not always come together: exceptional financial quality and a reasonable price. By quality stocks, we mean businesses with a strong record of revenue and profit growth, resilient margins, attractive returns on capital and substantial cash generation. Quality alone, however, is not enough. A wonderful company can still be a poor investment when too much future success is reflected in its share price.
Three quality stocks for your portfolio
Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE) provides software tools used to create and manage digital content, including Photoshop, Illustrator, Acrobat and Premiere Pro. Its products are vital to the daily workflows of designers, marketers and large companies, creating high switching costs and strong customer retention. Its subscription model provides predictable recurring revenue, high margins and substantial free cash flow. Adobe can reinvest this cash into product development while continuing to return capital to shareholders.
The concern is whether generative AI strengthens Adobe’s product suite or allows cheaper competitors to erode its position. We believe Adobe’s established customer relationships, proprietary content and ability to integrate AI directly into widely used products give it significant advantages. Importantly, the market is no longer placing a premium valuation on those strengths. Adobe’s earnings multiple has fallen as investors have focused on the competitive threat from AI. We believe much of that risk is now reflected in the price. Adobe does not need to return to its former valuation: continued moderate growth, resilient margins and strong cash generation should produce an attractive prospective return. Management have backed their confident outlook by announcing a significant share buyback programme earlier this year – further support for the idea that the share-price weakness is overdone.
Sign up to Money Morning
Don’t miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don’t miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Auto Trader (LSE: AUTO) operates the UK’s largest digital automotive marketplace, connecting car buyers with thousands of vehicle retailers. Its scale creates a powerful network effect: buyers visit because it offers the broadest choice of vehicles, while retailers advertise because that is where the buyers are. This makes its market position extremely difficult to replicate. Auto Trader also benefits from a capital-light business model, high margins and strong cash conversion. It does not own the vehicles listed on its platform; instead, retailers pay for advertising, data and digital services. The shares have weakened due to concerns about relationships with dealers and the impact of AI on online search. We believe these concerns underestimate the value of Auto Trader’s brand, audience, inventory access and proprietary market data. Its reduced valuation offers investors the opportunity to own a highly profitable and cash-generative franchise at a reasonable price.
Amphenol (NYSE: APH) makes the connectors, cables and sensors used across data centres, communications networks, industrial equipment and aerospace. These components represent a small proportion of a system’s overall cost, but they are critical to its performance and reliability. Customers value technical expertise and consistency over choosing the cheapest supplier, supporting long-term relationships and attractive returns. Demand is supported by investment in AI infrastructure and data centres. Amphenol is not conventionally cheap on a headline earnings multiple. However, relative value does not simply mean buying the stocks trading on the lowest price-earnings (P/E) ratios. We assess valuation relative to the durability of growth, cash generation and the opportunity to reinvest capital. We believe Amphenol’s exceptional execution and potential for growth justify a higher multiple.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek’s magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
