Share prices of cyber firms have jumped around a lot in recent weeks, leading one side or the other to claim victory. But the crucial point is that, relative to the historical norm, the market is not really pricing ANYTHING big to change. There was a much bigger move in cyber stocks in both 2020-22 (up) and 2022-23 (down) but no one read “AI x-risk” into this.
Here is the full post with graph.
Hardly the final word, and I am myself more pessimistic than those numbers indicate. But at least with this we are getting somewhere concrete and scientific rather than just scare stories. As for meta-commentary on the discourse itself, you really should be asking who are the people insisting on data here, and who are the people trying to talk you away from focusing on the data so much.
