Here’s the S&P 500 (daily close) with the key COVID and policy events marked; the numbered key is below the chart.
Event key:
- Dec 31 – China reports the Wuhan pneumonia cluster to the WHO
- Jan 21 – First confirmed US case (Washington state)
- Jan 23 – Wuhan locked down
- Jan 30 – WHO declares a global health emergency (PHEIC)
- Feb 19 – S&P 500 all-time high, 3,386
- Feb 24 – Italy outbreak; first big US selloff
- Mar 3 – Fed emergency 50 bp cut
- Mar 11 – WHO declares pandemic; Europe travel ban; NBA suspends season
- Mar 13 – US national emergency declared
- Mar 15–16 – Fed cuts to zero and restarts QE; worst day since 1987 (−12%)
- Mar 23 – Fed announces unlimited QE; market bottom at 2,237
- Mar 27 – CARES Act signed
- Apr 2 – 6.6 million initial jobless claims in one week
- Apr 20 – WTI oil futures settle below zero
- May 8 – April jobs report: 20.5 million jobs lost, 14.7% unemployment
The striking thing is how late the market moved. Wuhan was locked down and the WHO had declared an emergency a full month before the peak. The 34% drawdown then took 23 trading days, and the bottom coincided with the Fed’s unlimited-QE announcement rather than with any turn in the epidemiological news, which was still getting worse through April.
Addendum: Mostly from a query to Claude. You may fill in the missing context.
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