China’s latest breakthrough suggests AI hardware could become a lot more competitive.
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Hello, Reader.
Artificial intelligence is getting cheaper and more efficient, and China is a big reason why.
Here at Smart Money, we’ve discussed how China is developing remarkable AI systems at significantly lower costs than American firms.
Recently, Chinese startup Z.ai released GLM 5.2, a free open-source model. Capable of performing many real-world business tasks, Artificial Analysis quickly ranked it the fourth-best AI model.
Then, Chinese startup Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, another model competing with the top U.S. AI systems. In benchmark tests, Kimi K3 beat Anthropic’s top model and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol at some coding tasks.
Most recently, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) unveiled a preview of its newest AI model, Qwen3.8 Max. The Chinese e-commerce giant says Qwen3.8 Max ranks among the world’s most powerful AI models, trailing only Anthropic’s Fable 5.
Now, this doesn’t mean U.S. companies have lost their standing in the AI competition. But it does mean we should pay closer attention to how quickly the competitive landscape is changing.
China’s progress shows that AI competition may become less about who builds the best model and more about who builds models that are “good enough” for most users.
This week, that same “good enough” trend reached AI hardware. News out of China sent shares of top AI hardware companies like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Micron Technology Inc. (MU), and ASML Holding NV (ASML) sharply lower.
So, in today’s Smart Money, we’ll look at why China’s latest development has rattled the semiconductor sector and what it means for investors. We’ll look beyond “good enough,” and I’ll show you where the better opportunities lie instead.
The Machine That Might’ve Broken ASML’s Monopoly
The Information reported on Monday that China had begun manufacturing its own domestically developed deep ultraviolet lithography machines (DUVs). Lithography machines are like a sophisticated printing press. They use light to project intricate circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, layer by layer, creating modern semiconductors.
Last week, the Netherlands-based ASML was the undisputed leader in DUV lithography systems. Its machines are among the most complex ever built. So, competitors have struggled to match them.
Important AI chip designers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) rely on chipmakers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC), Samsung, and Intel Corp. (INTC)… which, in turn, rely on ASML’s DUV lithography systems. That near-monopoly has allowed ASML to become one of the most valuable companies in Europe. And it makes the Dutch supplier one of the best gauges of the AI Revolution.
But China is now developing its own domestic chipmaking equipment to reduce reliance on foreign companies like ASML. The first machines are scheduled for delivery to leading Chinese chipmakers Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor Ltd., and ChangXi Memory Technologies (CXMT) this year.
It’s important to note that China still trails the leaders. The U.S. and the Netherlands have restricted China’s access to advanced chipmaking equipment, including some of ASML’s most advanced DUV immersion lithography systems.
But this development could mean that China becomes less dependent on Western semiconductor equipment – by building “good enough” equipment of its own. Investors are now left wondering if China’s semiconductor gap is beginning to close.
This is the risk we’ve been highlighting.
The market has reacted, sending ASML’s shares down more than 5% at the end of the day on Monday. Nvidia, AMD, and Micron also fell 5%, 2%, and 5%, respectively.
China continues to prove that the next phase of the AI race may be defined by efficiency, and who can achieve the most with the resources available.
But here’s the important takeaway…
How to Win No Matter Who Wins the AI Race
Investors don’t need to predict exactly who will win the AI race. The tools and materials needed to build AI will continue to play a critical role.
That is where the real “bang for your buck” opportunity lies.
And it’s exactly the approach we’re taking at Fry’s Investment Report.
Our portfolio features pick-and-shovel plays positioned to benefit from the continued AI buildout, including major copper and aluminum producers and ETFs with exposure to critical energy sectors, such as solar and wind.
Because whether the next breakthrough comes from the U.S., China, or anywhere else, one thing remains true: Every AI system still requires chips, electricity, and data centers – and the raw materials needed to build all that.
Regards,
Eric Fry
