Key Points
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Given that the economy’s moving parts, policymakers’ decisions, and investor behavior are seemingly consistent, it’s reasonable to assume most of them more or less mirror one another.
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And it’s true that while no two bull markets are exactly the same, certainly many of them are similar.
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Enough of them are so different than the average, however, that it’s best to avoid assuming any of them will adhere to a particular schedule.
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With a start date of Oct. 12, 2022, the current bull market is now nearly four years old. And by some measures, that’s a potential problem. See, the S&P 500‘s (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) average bull market only lasts 2.7 years.
That’s the number from mutual fund company Hartford, anyway, based on the 27 bull markets since 1928. Since 1949, Fisher Investments notes the typical (and more recent) bull market lasts just over five years, which jibes with figures from brokerage firm Charles Schwab. Raymond James (NYSE: RJF) puts the number at 51 months, or four years and three months.
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In other words, most of the statistics say there’s probably at least a little more life left ahead for this one.
Just don’t get too fixated on the typical bull market’s time frame.
It’s not a time-based matter
Those figures are averages across all bull markets that start at different times. In all of these cases, however, the length of the S&P 500’s underlying bull markets still varied widely. The one that began shortly after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic only lasted less than two years, for instance. The one stemming from the subprime mortgage meltdown back in 2008 persisted for nearly 11 years. Before that, the recovery from the dot-com collapse of 2000 lasted a predictable five years. Anything’s possible.
Image source: Getty Images.
No two bull markets are the same. Their economic underpinnings are always different and always changing. These changes aren’t exactly predictable either. Neither is the response of investors nor that of policymakers to them.
Your best bet, therefore, is not falling into the trap of expecting the S&P 500’s cyclical ebbs and flows to adhere to any particular time frame. It’s not that you can’t or shouldn’t look to the future for warning signs. It’s just that you want to make sure you’re seeing those red flags regardless of what the calendar suggests.
To this end (and in answer to the titular question), no, there’s no need for investors to be nervous. Just be alert.
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Charles Schwab is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. James Brumley has positions in Raymond James Financial. The Motley Fool recommends Charles Schwab and recommends the following options: short September 2026 $95 calls on Charles Schwab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
